Development of a predictive management model for Orange River blackfly outbreaks
This project builds on the previous research related to blackfly outbreaks on the Orange River. Its primary aims were to (1) test and refine the recently developed pilot probabilistic blackfly outbreak model by inclusion of temperature and turbidity data, and using previous flows and monitoring data; (2) undertake climate change scenario analyses to assist future management planning; and (3) provide an evaluation framework for monitoring data of blackfly larval densities, based on the outbreak model. This study consolidated much of the previous research related to the Blackfly Control Programme over the past 15-20 years into a useful predictive management framework. There were two outcomes from this : firstly, a predictive management model for use by the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries for estimating the likelihood of blackfly outbreaks under different flow conditions, and which blackfly species are likely to be the problem; and secondly a mobile phone application as a tool for reporting nuisance levels that can be used by the general public to increase monitoring coverage. Together, the components of this framework are different from previous aspects of the Blackfly Control Programme, because they provide a structured means for auditing the successes and failures of the Blackfly Control Programme, and there is the basis for evaluating the most likely scenarios of future blackfly outbreaks in response to climate-change-induced water temperature increases. This could facilitate more streamlined and proactive control management strategies of blackfly, and promote adaptive management (learning by doing, especially mistakes).
- Rivers-Moore NA and Palmer RW. 2018. The influence of turbidity and water temperature on black fly species in the middle and lower Orange River, South Africa. Centre for Water Resources Research, University of KwaZulu-Natal.
- Rivers-Moore NA and Hill TR. 2018. A predictive management tool for blackfly outbreaks on the Orange River, South Africa. Centre for Water Resources Research, University of KwaZulu-Natal.
- Rivers-Moore NA. 2017. New App a shot in the arm for blackfly control along Orange River. The Water Wheel.
- Rivers-Moore NA and Palmer R. 2019. Development of a Predictive Management Tool for Orange River Blackfly Outbreaks. Water Research Commission report No. 2459/1/18.